IRVINE, Calif. – The Master's University men's soccer team knows the scenarios.
If the Mustangs win their semifinal Thursday and Vanguard wins its semifinal later in the evening, TMU would earn an automatic bid to the NAIA national tournament because the Lions have already earned the conference's other automatic bid as its regular season champion.
Otherwise, Master's would likely need to win the tournament to advance to nationals for the first time since 2009.
The common denominator: TMU needs to beat Arizona Christian at 4 p.m. Thursday at Orange County Great Park in Irvine. And that won't be easy.
The Firestorm (13-4-2) topped the Mustangs at TMU on Sept. 29, turning seven shots into three exceptional goals.
Master's (14-4) managed 11 shots and led 1-0 through 26 minutes, but ACU scored three unanswered goals to quell any momentum TMU built by beating then-No. 12 Vanguard two days earlier in its GSAC opener.
After dissecting the film, coach
Jim Rickard didn't feel many of his players performed particularly well in what was the first of back-to-back losses that threatened TMU's hopes of contending for the GSAC title.
Rickard called a meeting in his hotel room after a 2-0 loss at William Jessup on Oct. 4. He pointed his current club to the 2009 national runner-up team, a group that made its mark by focusing on one game at a time.
The Mustangs responded by winning their next five matches, highlighted by a 1-0 win at Westmont in Santa Barbara and a 2-1 win in the regular season finale at Ottawa University Arizona.
The win at Ottawa earned TMU a bye through the quarterfinals and, ultimately, a rematch with the Firestorm, who went unbeaten through their first six conference games before falling to Vanguard and Westmont.
ACU beat William Jessup 5-0 in the first round of this tournament, displaying the dangerous nature of its offense.
The Firestorm lead the GSAC in shots and goals.
"They're not afraid to shoot from anywhere," Rickard said. "They have so many weapons. They have key players, but you can't just talk about them. You have to talk about everybody."
The conversation starts with a dynamic pair of forwards. Freshman German Lopez and junior Alex Segura have each scored a GSAC-high 14 goals.
Fifteen players have scored a goal for ACU this season, five have scored at least five times.
The Mustangs are similarly balanced.
Benji Tembo, the GSAC's Player of the Year in each of the last two seasons, and
Trevor Mangan have each scored 10 goals.
Luis Garcia Sosa has racked up nine goals and, like Mangan, has dished out 11 assists.
The Mustangs have now made the conference semis in each of the last six seasons. Only once have they advanced to the final – in 2014.
Still, what Rickard's seen in practice this week bodes well for the Mustangs on Thursday.
"We've had some good practices," he said. "They seem mature and motivated."